Some Applications of Bifurcation Formulae to the Period Maps of Delay Differential Equations

Our purpose is to present some applications of the bifurcation formulae derived in [13] for periodic delay differential equations. We prove that a sequence of Neimark-Sacker bifurcations occurs as the parameter increases. For some special classes of equations, easily checkable conditions are given to determine the direction of the bifurcation of the time-one map

SEIR epidemiological model with varying infectivity and infinite delay

A new SEIR model with distributed infinite delay is derived when the infectivity depends on the age of infection. The basic reproduction number R-0, which is a threshold quantity for the stability of equilibria, is calculated. If R-0 1, then an endemic equilibrium appears which is locally asymptotically stable. Applying a permanence theorem for infinite dimensional systems, we obtain that the disease is always present when R-0 > 1

Controlling Mackey--Glass chaos

The Mackey--Glass equation, which was proposed to illustrate nonlinear phenomena in physiological control systems, is a classical example of a simple looking time delay system with very complicated behavior. Here we use a novel approach for chaos control: we prove that with well chosen control parameters, all solutions of the system can be forced into a domain where the feedback is monotone, and by the powerful theory of delay differential equations with monotone feedback we can guarantee that the system is not chaotic any more. We show that this domain decomposition method is applicable with the most common control terms. Furthermore, we propose an other chaos control scheme based on state dependent delays.Comment: accepted in Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Scienc

Large number of endemic equilibria for disease transmission models in patchy environment

We show that disease transmission models in a spatially heterogeneous environment can have a large number of coexisting endemic equilibria. A general compartmental model is considered to describe the spread of an infectious disease in a population distributed over several patches. For disconnected regions, many boundary equilibria may exist with mixed disease free and endemic components, but these steady states usually disappear in the presence of spatial dispersal. However, if backward bifurcations can occur in the regions, some partially endemic equilibria of the disconnected system move into the interior of the nonnegative cone and persist with the introduction of mobility between the patches. We provide a mathematical procedure that precisely describes in terms of the local reproduction numbers and the connectivity network of the patches, whether a steady state of the disconnected system is preserved or ceases to exist for low volumes of travel. Our results are illustrated on a patchy HIV transmission model with subthreshold endemic equilibria and backward bifurcation. We demonstrate the rich dynamical behavior (i.e., creation and destruction of steady states) and the presence of multiple stable endemic equilibria for various connection networks

Mathematical models for vaccination, waning immunity and immune system boosting: a general framework

When the body gets infected by a pathogen or receives a vaccine dose, the immune system develops pathogen-specific immunity. Induced immunity decays in time and years after recovery/vaccination the host might become susceptible again. Exposure to the pathogen in the environment boosts the immune system thus prolonging the duration of the protection. Such an interplay of within host and population level dynamics poses significant challenges in rigorous mathematical modeling of immuno-epidemiology. The aim of this paper is twofold. First, we provide an overview of existing models for waning of disease/vaccine-induced immunity and immune system boosting. Then a new modeling approach is proposed for SIRVS dynamics, monitoring the immune status of individuals and including both waning immunity and immune system boosting. We show that some previous models can be considered as special cases or approximations of our framework.Comment: 18 pages, 1 figure keywords: Immuno-epidemiology, Waning immunity, Immune status, Boosting, Physiological structure, Reinfection, Delay equations, Vaccination. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1411.319

Global dynamics of a novel delayed logistic equation arising from cell biology

The delayed logistic equation (also known as Hutchinson's equation or Wright's equation) was originally introduced to explain oscillatory phenomena in ecological dynamics. While it motivated the development of a large number of mathematical tools in the study of nonlinear delay differential equations, it also received criticism from modellers because of the lack of a mechanistic biological derivation and interpretation. Here we propose a new delayed logistic equation, which has clear biological underpinning coming from cell population modelling. This nonlinear differential equation includes terms with discrete and distributed delays. The global dynamics is completely described, and it is proven that all feasible nontrivial solutions converge to the positive equilibrium. The main tools of the proof rely on persistence theory, comparison principles and an $L^2$-perturbation technique. Using local invariant manifolds, a unique heteroclinic orbit is constructed that connects the unstable zero and the stable positive equilibrium, and we show that these three complete orbits constitute the global attractor of the system. Despite global attractivity, the dynamics is not trivial as we can observe long-lasting transient oscillatory patterns of various shapes. We also discuss the biological implications of these findings and their relations to other logistic type models of growth with delays